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Javier Santiso

Brasil. Its role between the emerging markets and the world re-balance URL: http://www.march.es/conferencias/anteriores/voz.aspx?p1=22714&l=2
  • Series: BRIC

  • Date: 25/01/2011
  • Presenter: Lucía Franco
  • Duration: 61

The world is experiencing a massive re-balance of the wealth of nations. In the decade of 2000-2010, the emerging markets have experimented an increase without precedents that the 2008 global crisis has not stopped.

In the present decade we are watching an acceleration phenomenon of this transition with growth differentials in favor of the emerging markets, while the OCDE economies are following a more restricted trajectory.

Not only most of the world's growth is now concentrated in the emerging markets: these are now also intensifying among them the south-south commercial relationships and inversions. In 2009, for the first tome, the principal commercial partner of Brazil, South Africa, or India have ceased to be an OCDE country and now is China.

The emerging multinationals are now taking the chance to invest in other emerging countries, the same way as in OCDE countries, and the same is true for the sovereign wealth funds of these countries. This massive re-balance of the nations' wealth invites us to re-think our cognitive maps: the world is no longer articulated in Centre (OCDE) and Periphery (Emerging). Even traditional categories of OCDE markets versus emerging markets need to be re-thought. Within the OCDE we find more and more emerging countries (South Korea, Mexico, Chile, Israel, or Poland for example), and within the emerging countries we can now find countries more developed than some of the OCDE.

Our mental maps and the concepts we are using to read the world need to be urgently reviewed in the light of this transformation. The current European crisis is another episode of the great re-balance of the fluxes and wealth of the world. It is not only a financial and economical crisis, but also a cognitive crisis.

In the conference, apart from analyzing this new world re-balance, we will emphasize Latin America and Brazil as the main emerging region.

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