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Pablo Bustelo

China. Toward which global supremacy? URL: http://www.march.es/conferencias/anteriores/voz.aspx?p1=22717&l=2

Recently, China has become the second major economy in the world, overpassing Japan. The forecasts say that it will become the first one in less than fifteen years, and that around 2050, its GDP will double the one of the United States of America. This spectacular increase, an effect from thirty years of economical reforms with amazing results, has manifested with and economical, political, and cultural presence of China in all corners of the world, from Africa to Latin America, and also in Pacific Asia, Europe and North America.

This development, fundamentally economical, makes China a different case from the experiences of other emerging powers of the past, like Germany and Japan around the first third of the 20th century. It is also contributing to slowly shape a bipolar world, which will most likely have important consequences in the political scene.

Nevertheless, many governments and analysts wonder of the Chinese growth will continue during the next decades, considering the great challenges that the country is facing, and if it will continue to be a "pacific development", like until now, or if it will become a political, economic, and military threat for the Western world and Japan.

This conference will focus, first, on arguing that the economical growth of China will most likely continue, although at a slower rhythm, because the advantages of the country (such as a correct integration within the world economy, the excellent infrastructures, or a very competitive industry) are greater than its disadvantages (like the aging of the population, the deterioration of the environment, or the lack of liberties).

We will also discuss if the growth of China can be a menace for the Western world. We will evaluate if China has or not the will and capacity to distort the existing international order or to generate serious, economic, or other conflicts. We will address how the "pacific development" of China does not only depende on Beijing, but also on the West and Japan, this is, the confidence these may have in the "pacific development" of China, and their will to leave space for this emerging power in the global centres of decision.

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